A quarterly analysis and forecast of PV manufacturing costs (covering ingot, wafer, cell and module), based on Exawatt’s bottom-up cost model
The report covers:
- Current and forecast cost of goods sold (COGS, i.e. manufacturing cost including depreciation) for key silicon-based technologies (PERC, TOPCon, HJT)
- Analysis of cost structure: which costs really matter?
- Analysis of key trends in cost-competitiveness (e.g. comparisons of wafer formats, TOPCon and HJT vs PERC)
- Analysis of key input costs and cost drivers (e.g. polysilicon, glass, aluminium)
- High-level discussion of other key factors (e.g. shipping prices, SG&A)
- Accompanying Excel data, showing cost breakdowns for ingot/wafer, cell, and module manufacturing
Cost review and forecast
Exawatt’s cost review and forecast is based on our proprietary bottom-up cost model, representing the “should cost” manufacturing cost for leading manufacturers. This allows module buyers to understand cost and efficiency trends, and manufacturers to benchmark themselves against their competition.
Exawatt’s and CRU‘s combined methodologies provide expansive intel on global commodities, technologies and costs. Together, we provide vital energy transition insights to our stakeholders.
We are currently working on region-specific versions of our model, in order to compare likely manufacturing costs in countries such as the USA and India with those seen in China and SE Asia. Please contact us for more information.
Meet the solar PV team
Alex Barrows
Head of PVAlex Barrows
Alex heads up Exawatt’s solar PV research, with a particular focus on forecasting the efficiency and cost evolution of solar technologies in order to understand when and how new technologies will influence the PV market. He obtained his PhD in the physics of perovskite-based solar cells from the University of Sheffield.
Molly Morgan
Senior Research Analyst (PV)Molly Morgan
Molly supports the PV team by tracking and forecasting evolutions in solar module efficiency and architecture, as well as providing analysis of capacity, production, and financial data for PV manufacturers. She has an undergraduate degree in Physics and a postgraduate degree in Solar Cell Technology, both from the University of Sheffield.
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