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A quarterly analysis and forecast of PV manufacturing costs (covering ingot, wafer, cell and module), based on Exawatt’s bottom-up cost model

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The report covers:

  • Current and forecast cost of goods sold (COGS, i.e. manufacturing cost including depreciation) for key silicon-based technologies (PERC, TOPCon, HJT)
  • Analysis of cost structure: which costs really matter?
  • Analysis of key trends in cost-competitiveness (e.g. comparisons of wafer formats, TOPCon and HJT vs PERC)
  • Analysis of key input costs and cost drivers (e.g. polysilicon, glass, aluminium)
  • High-level discussion of other key factors (e.g. shipping prices, SG&A)
  • Accompanying Excel data, showing cost breakdowns for ingot/wafer, cell, and module manufacturing

Cost review and forecast

Exawatt’s cost review and forecast is based on our proprietary bottom-up cost model, representing the “should cost” manufacturing cost for leading manufacturers. This allows module buyers to understand cost and efficiency trends, and manufacturers to benchmark themselves against their competition.

Exawatt’s and CRU‘s combined methodologies provide expansive intel on global commodities, technologies and costs. Together, we provide vital energy transition insights to our stakeholders.

We are currently working on region-specific versions of our model, in order to compare likely manufacturing costs in countries such as the USA and India with those seen in China and SE Asia. Please contact us for more information.

Meet the solar PV team

Alex Barrows

Head of PV

Alex Barrows

Alex heads up Exawatt’s solar PV research, with a particular focus on forecasting the efficiency and cost evolution of solar technologies in order to understand when and how new technologies will influence the PV market. He obtained his PhD in the physics of perovskite-based solar cells from the University of Sheffield.

Molly Morgan

Senior Research Analyst (PV)

Molly Morgan

Molly supports the PV team by tracking and forecasting evolutions in solar module efficiency and architecture, as well as providing analysis of capacity, production, and financial data for PV manufacturers. She has an undergraduate degree in Physics and a postgraduate degree in Solar Cell Technology, both from the University of Sheffield.

“During my stint as Head of Technology Trends at the Advanced Propulsion Centre (APC) we were desperately looking for proper bottom-up cost analysis for batteries. Exawatt was one of very few who could. Applying the approach and techniques perfected in PV and semiconductors to batteries provided great results fast. I have found Exawatt’s ability to address complex problems and willingness to challenge conventional thinking a great asset that I hope to use again in future.”

Dave OudeNijeweme
Senior Director for Battery Materials, Worley

“When developing solid-state pouch cells for EVs, design to cost is critical for Ilika. Our engineering team needed to select electrolytes, dopants and additives that would be affordable and available when deployed at giga scale. Running a program with Exawatt allowed us to make better material selections and gave us insights into the rates of learning necessary on all items in our bill of materials.”

John Tinson
VP Sales and Marketing, Ilika

“Exawatt has an outstanding and friendly team. During our collaborations, Exawatt has displayed deep technical insights into battery supply chain analysis, demand forecasting and cost modelling.”

Dr Robert Pell
Founder and CEO of Minviro

Can Exawatt help you chart a path to decarbonisation through electrification?

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